Short quotes from the table. Name the bias at work: gambler’s fallacy, hot hand, illusion of control, chasing losses or selective memory.
Short answer
Ten quotes from a pool of fifteen, five biases, one right answer each. Every one of them has been said at a roulette table tonight.
quotes
10 of 15
biases
5
pass mark
8
cure
the Mathematics section
The five biases
Gambler’s fallacy: a result is “due” because it has not appeared. Hot handmythHot handThe belief that a run of wins, or of one result, makes another more likely. At the wheel it is the gambler’s fallacy turned around.Read full →: a streak will continue. Illusion of control: something you do changes the outcome. Chasing losses: past losses make the next bet necessary. Selective memory: the hits are remembered and the misses are not. They overlap in real speech, so each quote on the quiz is written to have one clear answer.
Scoring
10: you could run the pit.
8–9: you will hear these all evening and smile.
5–7: you know the gambler’s fallacy; the Myths section covers the rest.
Under 5: read Why Roulette Is Addictive. It is the whole list with the science.
Questions
Is the hot hand ever real?
In roulette, no. In some skill sports the evidence is mixed. The wheel has no skill to run hot.
Which bias costs the most money?
Chasing losses, by a distance. The others change which bet you make; chasing changes how much.
Comic relief
Five biases. One pigeon.
Sources
Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D. “Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases.”Science 185, 1974.
Langer, E. “The illusion of control.”Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 32, 1975.
