Roulette Online PRO
Mathematics · Core concept · 7 min

Expected Value

The average result of a bet if you could repeat it forever. In European roulette it is the same for every standard bet: you lose 1/37 of each stake, on average, per spin.

In plain English

Imagine placing the same $10 bet on red a million times. Some spins win $10, some lose $10. Add up every result and divide by a million: you get about −$0.27. That number is the expected value. It is not what happens on any one spin; it is the long-run average per spin.

Short answerEV = probability of winning × amount won − probability of losing × amount lost. For every standard roulette bet that works out to −2.70% of the stake.

Formula

EV = p · W − (1 − p) · S
p = n/37 · W = S·(36/n − 1) · n = numbers covered · S = stake

Substitute the roulette payout rule, 36/n − 1, and n cancels out. That is the whole story of the house edge in one line:

EV = (n/37)·S·(36/n − 1) − ((37−n)/37)·S
   = S·(36 − n − 37 + n)/37
   = −S/37

Try it

Pick how many numbers the bet covers. The probability and payout change; the expected value does not.

1 number covered · pays 35:1stake $10
p(win)1/37 = 2.70%
win pays+$350
loss costs−$10
EV = p·W − (1−p)·S0.0270·$350 − 0.9730·$10
expected value−$0.27 per spin · −2.70%

What it looks like over time

Average result per spin for a $10 red bet, as spins accumulate. Early on, luck dominates; the running average settles toward −$0.27 as the sample grows. This is the long-run convergence that the house relies on.

EV −$0.27spin 1spin 2,000

Common misconceptions

“A negative EV means I will lose every session.”
No. It means the average over many sessions is a loss. Individual sessions vary widely, and more so for high-variance bets like straight up.
“The casino needs a long time to win.”
The casino’s edge applies to every spin; what the long run does is make the result predictable. Over a single session, luck is the larger force.
“Some bets have a better EV than others.”
Not in European roulette, with one exception: under la partage or en prison, even-money bets have half the usual house edge.